How Raila Lost Rift Valley

Even among some of Raila Odinga’s passionate supporters in the Rift Valley, there is apprehension on whether the historic presidential candidate will win back some of the region’s support ahead of 2017 elections.

While all is not lost for the opposition leader, it is evident that there have been better days for him in the region that overwhelmingly supported him in 2007.

For Odinga to have credible chances at beating Kenyatta in 2017, he needs at least a million Kalenjin votes – or more. Such a prospect is a difficult to comprehend for now.

Even with the most elaborate strategy to win back the region – which he obviously does not have – Odinga’s prospects in wining some Kalenjin support in the Rift Valley rest on the outcome of the ICC case against Deputy President William Ruto, the unity and performance of the Jubilee government and the fate of the county governments.

I met Odinga March 2007 as he laid down the foundation for one of the most elaborate and energetic campaigns yet, to later become a front runner by late 2007.

It was in Kapkatet in Kericho during his first major campaign rally as he sought ODM nomination to stand in the election as president. He came across to many as genuinely concerned about the welfare of the region as well as getting them back into the government.

There is no underestimating the goodwill he enjoyed. Humanity flowing to listen to him for months! They even called him Arap Mibei (someone associated with water), without ceremony or tradition.

Covering many of his campaign rallies in the region, I remember a candidate who looked biblical and sounded prophetic. A Jeremiah! A modern day Moses who had landed to deliver the Kalenjin from misery and mistreatment under President Mwai Kibaki, whom Odinga backed in 2002.

Because he was supported by Ruto, the current deputy president, it was never easy to gauge how much was courtesy of his co-Pentagon member and what was due to his direct appeal.

He professed secularism and religious values when it mattered. He oscillated between far left and the centre when there was need. It somehow felt that Odinga become too comfortable with the support and even might have felt the Kalenjins were his to keep.

He had unflappable calm and endless energy, even amid huge storms. His mythical reputation gave loose bowels to the PNU. And then of course the tragedy of 2007 happened.

But I could not imagine seeing such a politician go ahead to lose the 2013 election. But he did. And his supporters have an explanation.

“There was so much propaganda ranging from Mau Forest evictions to ICC that was thrown at Raila ahead of the 2013 election,” Kipkorir Menjo, a former councillor and a key supporter of Odinga in North Rift explained to me.

“But now, people are starting to understand it was all about propaganda. It is becoming clear Raila had nothing with ICC… Such things, together with bad economic performance of the Jubilee are starting to bring the reality home,” Menjo said.

But even such optimism rests of elements beyond the control of Odinga.

In putting together this piece, some senior Rift Valley politicians told me Odinga was no longer electable anymore. Perhaps they are right.

Look. When the 2008 violence died down and a power-sharing deal gave Odinga the position of a prime minister, I saw a consummate politician who was enamoured by illusions of power and biometric access to his Harambee Annex office.

His humility was gone, replaced with a hopeless charisma. A man on a mission to turn every opportunity into misfortune, I thought.

His friends knew that Kibaki side was scheming his failure. Whether they had access to tell him is another issue.

As prime minister, while he fought with Kibaki over nusu mkate (half loaf) and all the rubbish about torn carpet and a moving toilet, Odinga missed an opportunity to network and carry forward the goodwill he had amassed in Rift Valley.

Mau Forest eviction

He started haemorrhaging support and the goodwill as soon as he was named prime minister after losing the election, which many in the Rift Valley concur, was stolen.

When he presided over the evictions of Mau Forest, he was doing the right thing.

There is no underestimating the importance of Mau, the country's biggest closed-canopy forest and a vital water catchment region. With more than 20 per cent destroyed, continued destruction would cost the country’s tourism, tea and energy sectors and threaten millions beyond Kenya.

But I always suspected that Odinga was waving his green credentials for the international community that does not vote. Those who vote had been pushed to makeshift camps. Their children had missed out on a full school calendar. They were being rained on, exposed to the elements, captured on TV.

This is where the rain also started beating Odinga. You often hear the argument that there were also those in Kibaki’s side of the coalition government who were setting him up for a failure.

To date, Odinga people tell me the eviction had been a government project and it was the right thing to do. No one doubts that. A consultative process, with concessions, would have been a preferred route, if he was keen on retaining ties with a constituency that sent squatters into Mau.

He forgot the difficult choices he faced. Play by the Kenyan shenanigans and retain Kalenjin support or go for it, and save humanity.

The problem is he lost both; Kalenjin support and Mau.

Ronald Ngeny, a key support of Odinga in South Rift said Jubilee is still following the same script in attempts to reclaim Mau.

“Jubilee recently evicted people from Mau Forest. If you are saying that Raila lost support because of it, then that would be untrue. Some people played propaganda with the issue at the time,” he told me.

The government has said no more violent evictions would be carried out in Mau.

Post-election violence and ICC

As if that was not enough, William Ruto and ex-broadcaster Joshua Sang – two Kalenjins - alongside four other Kenyans were named by the ICC prosecutor in December 2010 as suspected masterminds of the 2007/8 post- election violence.

The narrative advanced by the prosecutor, who also said he wanted to make Kenya example in dealing with impunity, was that Odinga’s party planned the violence.

The thinking in Rift Valley remains that ahead of the election, it was clear Odinga was wining the poll and so there was no need for any thoughts on violence.

Any suggestion that the violence was planned goes against the spirit of overwhelming support the Kalenjin gave Odinga in 2007.

Even though he rejected any claims that his party planned the violence, many felt that Odinga did not speak up loud enough in support of Ruto. And when he spoke, his message was cacophonic. And when it was clear, it seemed to support the ICC narrative that the violence was planned.

“We cannot stand up as a civilized country and say that nobody killed the 1,300 people. These murders must have been systematic and organised,” Daily Nation quoted Odinga saying on 28 March 2011 during a visit to Dubai.

In other comments carried by the media, Odinga repeated that someone had to take responsibility for the deaths for the violence. To his former supporters in the Rift Valley, he and Kibaki were the only people who should have been held responsible.

“William Ruto or Sang were not on the ballot paper running for president. Raila was ungrateful and seemed OK as his former supporters were being unfairly tried at the ICC,” a senator from Rift Valley said to me.

The possible dismissal of Ruto and Sang case in August or so before they are put to their defence will provide a relief for Odinga. He may even want to say that not a single kinsman was a witness against the two in court. His supporters have in the past said the real Ruto enemies are those he is with in government – the people who got the case before the ICC and provided witnesses.

“One day, Ruto will know that Odinga had nothing to do with the case before Hague. Since Uhuru case was dropped, Ruto has been left alone. Uhuru never speaks about it at all, No lobbying anyone anymore. He is being mistreated,” Ng’eny told me.

This thinking reinforces the narrative among some who believe that Deputy President William Ruto will not become president through Jubilee, read, Kikuyu support – or president at all. This is a dangerous hypothesis.

Odinga’s involvement – or lack of – in the ICC case is already part of Kalenjin history. It will take more than a speeches to prove he was not part of.

Fate of county governments 

Recent meeting between Odinga and Bomet governor, Isaac Rutto to discuss strengthening devolution is more to the benefit of the latter.

CORD’s Okoa Kenya initiative has several convergences with governors’ Pesa Mashinani campaign. As he leaves the position of the chairman of council of governor’s, some believe that Rutto had been keen to hand over the Pesa Mashinani campaign to CORD.

Odinga must be aware that Ruto, a sworn opponent of the deputy president, is not in his presidential equation.

A serious audit of the county government that presents an optimistic scorecard of the devolved units will provide Odinga with good tidings.

He can claim credit for championing the strengthening of the county governments.

However, an audit that suggests corruption has marred performance of the devolved units will cast doubts of the motivation for sending more money to them.

While selling JAP in the Rift Valley will require energy, re-introducing CORD in the same region will be like trying to artificially inseminate a porcupine. It will be repulsive and fraught with danger.

The flight of former ODM executive director Magerer Langat and former minister and ODM official Franklin Bett to Ruto side has left the party with no high profile figure from the Kalenjin.

Should Ruto and Rutto reconcile later, then Odinga’s hopes would have been dashed.

He cannot go to former president Moi, a key supporter of Uhuru Kenyatta.

That leaves the former prime minister with a bad wind in the Rift Valley.

Deputy President’s Ruto’s Kalenjin support base threatened

The fallout from the political war between William Ruto and Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto will erode the unity of the deputy president’s Kalenjin constituency in the Rift Valley and significantly weaken his bargaining position in the run up to the 2017 elections.

While President Uhuru Kenyatta is keen to deliver a united Kikuyu vote for Jubilee in the elections, the rivalry between the two Rutos threatens to split Rift Valley and weaken claims that the two have the interests of the community at heart.

In the rivalry, former President Daniel Moi stands to bolster his position by picking up a constituency that sees the two Rutos as too divisive and too proud to reach a compromise.

In the short term, the differences stand to dent the credibility of William Ruto as a suave political operative, and present him as a self-serving individual who has been mesmerized by trappings of power in government.

It might be possible to deduce that perhaps his political tactics are overrated, or explained that two difficult years in office have softened this self-made politician who rose from nothing to become a key player of our time.

Governor Ruto will come off badly too, as a wealthy politician consumed by feeling of entitlement to offering political direction to the Kalenjin people.

A few days ago, at fundraiser in Elgeiyo Marakwet, Governor Rutto said that the people of Kenya know a Ruto will become the president of Kenya one day, only that it has not been decided which Rut(t)o.

There has been rapprochement between Governor Ruto and Baringo Senator Gideon Moi, whose political prospects are cleanly not for 2017 but perhaps 2022.

In seeking closer ties with Mr Moi and KANU, Governor Ruto is raising his stakes and hardening the prospects of possible deal with the deputy president to end their row.

As a student of former President Moi and an orphan of a directionless political system under Kibaki that threw off scholars of contemporary politics, Rutto is better prepared for political contest with anyone.

He is almost succeeding in positioning himself as the Kipsigis leader who is being molested by a jealous elder brother, William.

The thinking in Rift Valley is that even before the ICC case is out of the way, the storm in Rift Valley, which the deputy president is obviously unwilling to douse off, is a dangerous miscalculation of a man who hopes to one day become president.

Bomet, Kericho politics

Back in Rift Valley, the fight stands to benefit no other politician, as most in the South Rift are one-dimensional products of political accidents.

In North Rift, they live in the shadows of the deputy president, lacking access or spine to genuinely advise the deputy president on the pettiness of the region’s politics.

But even with the exhausting shadow wars with the deputy president, Governor Rutto will not be a pushover in Kipsigis politics (Bomet and Kericho).

Barring prosecutable allegations of corruption, anyone seeking to beat him in 2017 gubernatorial election in Bomet is deluding themselves if they would not have an elaborate campaign plan, complete with tactics, by the end of this year.

His main potential challengers for the governor’s post, which will be an extension of tuft wars with Ruto, include Sotik MP Joyce Laboso, former MP Julius Kones, former Communications Commission of Kenya boss Sammy Kirui and accountant Ernest Cheruiyot.

Ms Laboso is supposed to be beneficiary of a Rutto tragedy, but she is starting off from an extremely weak position, beset by petty fights with local journalists, regular sneering at perceived weak opponents and lack of strategy.

Male chauvinists will mock he devotion to the development of the community, following her marriage to Western Kenya, and brand her Ruto’s project.

It is my assessment that if all other factors remain the same, beyond the year, Governor Ruto will be unbeatable in 2017 election because of a wide grassroots support network that has been well cushioned from any bad press relating to allegations of misuse of county funds.

Anything else will be comparable to a legend of a hyena trailing a man with the hope that the hand would fall off, offering a feast.

That hand is not even there in Kericho, where Governor Paul Chepkwony’s political prospects are dependent on local business class and the final result of Ruto-Rutto duel.

Kericho Senator Charles Keter, an ally of the deputy president, would be the obvious beneficiary in the event of a defeat of Rutto, but he is hardliner who is unsure how to benefit.

Reflecting on Blood, Evil, God, Depression, Tusker, 2008 Violence

The smell of sun-roasted soldier's boots on that afternoon discouraged me or any of the many journalists in the room from breathing normally. The dust was chocking. The boots were putrid.

The stinking sticky bodies of the people did not offer much inspiration to stay on inside the dust soaked carpet at the Kenyatta International Conference Centre.

I had not been home to change the previous day - on 29 December 2007. I was not feeling as uncomfortable like many of my colleagues, somehow. This afternoon - on 30 December 2007 - as the sun was starting to come down, behind the Intercontinental Hotel, something felt spooky, wrong. Really wrong!

The police officers in red-berets marched in... in some kind of movie-like slow-motion, gently raising the dust in the carpet. They had come to politely tell us that we had to leave the room at the KICC where it had become impossible for Samuel Kivuiti and his team at the Electoral Commission of Kenya to say anything without sounding ridiculous.

Well, the soldiers showed us out. It took several minutes of feet-dragging and looking back over the shoulder in case someone had thought important to allow us back to report the final result of the presidential ballot.

Outside, by the fountain, just behind the statute of Jomo Kenyatta, NTV television was still live from somewhere inside the KICC, relaying the story on expected results of presidential election.

It was just after 5:30pm. The sky just above the KICC appeared luminous, with dying sun streaks. The several flag posts appeared to be filing past each other, casting some small shadows over the KICC. Ordinarily, years back, this would have been time to lead the cows and goats home.

I called up Raila Odinga to seek to hear what he knew was happening. I can't remember what he said. I called up Ngari Gituku, the man who had been a major campaigner form President Kibaki, and whom we had become good friends. He said something to the effect that Kibaki had been elected.

I then called the newsdesk where I used to edit news, and decisively told them that KBC was due to announce that Kibaki had been elected by a small margin.

I also told a BBC friend that KBC was due to announce the results. I just knew somehow that was to happen. Minutes later, the newsdesk called me back, and said KBC was live with results and that Kibaki had been declared the winner.

They were sending me a car to pick me. My colleague came by in under ten minutes, and at exactly 6pm, we left for a bar along Lenana Road to start drinking. I had not been a serious drinker at all, before then.

Just before we ordered food and Tusker, somebody switched from DSTV to Citizen Television on terrestrial. It was getting a bit dark by then. It was just in time for us to watch Kibaki taking oath of office at the State House lawn where I had been weeks earlier for a story. Several election losers were sitting by. Well, it did not matter anyway. I was holding a cold Tusker beer.

The ceremony did not last for more that a few minutes. And when I looked the other way, towards Yaya Centre, huge plume of black smoke was billowing. It was the start of violence in Kibera. Olympics was burning.

My phone continued ringing the whole evening. It was my colleagues telling me that there had been violence, and houses were burning. Kisumu, Nakuru, Eldoret, Kericho, Mombasa, Mathare. I switched off my phone. It was too sad.

Kenya then made a steep descend into deadly violence and destitution.

Too depressed that the nation I had so much loved had plummeted into bloodshed was too much to bear.

With over KES 20,000, we moved down the down to the now closed Red Sea Restaurant along Lenana Road. We stayed there for days, weeks with a colleague, drinking and watching Andrew Simmons of Al-Jazeera English saying that Kenya was burning.

I was too depressed to go back to work and I was due to be sacked. I think I was and later reinstated. I went to my house to change around 8th of January. I had been in the same new black jeans I had bought before Christmas, two days before elections, in company of a girl I had liked very much.

When I was on phone next was just after 4pm on 1 January, in time for a call from my BBC friend who phoned to tell me that a church had been burnt near Eldoret and some people may have been killed. My heart sunk.

So much water have gone under the bridge since all these happened. I have since sought treatment for depression because of the sadness and exposure to high stress levels.

In my heart of hearts, I have never believed that has moved on since Kibaki-Odinga government was inaugurated. In many ways, this country remains as divided as the day when retarded PNU MPs said Kufuor had come to have tea in Nairobi.

And when the ICC this week indicted four people, I made up my mind that I wanted to become a psychic, if I can.

I feel like I have totally lost a sense of trust in this nation. I feel like I don't believe that this ICC process is genuine, when I think of the continuing killings in Syria.

And still, when I think about these ICC indictments, my heart goes out to the four men, and their families as well as the people who were killed and those who lost their loved ones in the mayhem.

Somehow, in some way, the violence and the subsequent peace deal took away some part of my heart. It dented my conscious vitality to trust human beings, institutions of capitalism, genuine love and hope itself.

And more brutally, I have lost all hope in all Kenyan leaders. They represent wickedness, deceit, treachery and raw narcissism.

Reflecting on how this country and nation has sought to move on, my mind shuts down completely.

The Kenya violence represented evil in full Glory. I asked ''would God have helped this nation to avoid this evil''. Maybe he was helpless, in as much as He wanted to help. Or he allowed the mayhem to act as some lesson. But then again, what lesson?

Orgasm As Teen Philosophy, And The Coming Dangers

So, does teenage orgasm exist?

I was prompted to write about this after a friend blogged about this and later, joined by another friend, opined that teenage sex orgasm was real.

I seek to submit a different view.

As late as the 1970s, some people still believed that female orgasm did not exist. To them, it was a myth made up by the media to emphasize male chauvinism.

But that is not even the issue. I believe that orgasm for teenagers in much of windswept Africa is a philosophy – more or less like thinking about ‘’Mental Purity & Three Fold Yoga’’. Or more pedestrian one like saying for every one thing you regret, there are always 100 more to be thankful for. 

Sex is legal at 16 in England, Scotland and Wales between a man and a woman or between two men. In Northern Ireland sex is legal at 17 between a man and a woman and between two men.

(There is no specific law about the age of consent for sex between two women in the UK)

In much of Africa, is sex even legal? Just asking! For the sake of this argument, lets say 18 years is the *goodness* legal age to have sex.

But before that age, young boys and girls engage in adventurous sex, when as young as 13. For boys, this activity is more in line with getting to watch the first movie, maybe a James Bond, or Rambo, or even a more recent film.

For girls too, it is about the talk that it is possible to have sex and still be alive.

Now for these two categories of human beings, the pull to have sex is not motivated by orgasm or such other sensual excitement… rather the adventure of it.

And that is why then, later in years, looking back, orgasm comes across as some life philosophy for many young people. In early stages of life, orgasm cannot be the pull or push guiding teenagers to engage in sexual relations. 

On whether there should be attempts to stop teenage sex and pregnancies, I don’t think it is worth it. May be it is better to take the route that Kenya has taken; giving these young people contraceptives and condoms.

I rest my case.

THE HORROR OF TEENAGE ORGASM

Role of Weak Erection, Condoms in Stopping New HIV Infections

Is it really conceivable to ''get to zero'' with some people still refusing to wear condoms for fear of losing an erection! I mean, is it possible to get to zero - to stop new HIV infections and further deaths from AIDS?

It looks possible but at times I don’t think it is viable, especially if sex remains central to politics in our world, today.

I am writing about this full of excitement that for the first time since HIV/AIDS was discovered there is talk of possibly ending this epidemic, or at least stemming its advance.

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) report recently said "unprecedented progress" had been made in the fight against the disease. The report also said new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths had fallen to the lowest levels since the peak of the epidemic.

Coming hot on the heels of this report is the latest HIV science which said HIV treatment itself not only saves lives, but is also a critical form of preventing the spread of the virus.

But since then, it has become apparent that donors were bored of funding HIV/AIDS programmes, especially in light of economic challenges that started in 2007/2008.

In Africa, changes in sexual behaviour — use of condoms, reduction in the number of sexual partners and a delay of the start of sexual activity — have been responsible for driving HIV decline.

“Getting to Zero” is the theme for World AIDS Day 2011. So that brings me to the my point about whether it is possible to get to zero - to stop new infections and stop further deaths.

Without sounding simplistic, sex is driving new HIV infections -  the virus that causes AIDS. I feel sex is kind of right-wing. It may soon become a political party! And that is why it remains in the lead in promoting new HIV infections.

And condom remains one of the most critical ways of stopping people from contracting HIV.

To be able to leverage on new science and breakthroughs made, it is important that discussion on whether to use a condom or not should start at Java, Dormans or any other venue… weeks, days or hours before having sex.

Friends who want to have sex, couples or just say anybody, should discuss this way away from the sensual excitement minutes before going all the way. For hookers and their clients, this talk should be before taking the drive or walk to an alley or hotel to have sex.

But is this possible, away from the reach of UN enumerators and… in villages - like in a bench in Kakamega - where information on condom efficacy may be lacking.

There are so many excuses human beings give not to use a condom. There is the legend on over sweets and wrapper nonsense. I don’t even know how this came about. Sex is not a passion of panic over whether you have contracted an infection, but of assurance that you don’t worry that you may have contracted HIV. So this sweets tale is nonsensical.

Also, glorification of sex should be toned now; its political veneration impaired, if we are to ''get to zero''.

Kenyan Radio Plays Nicole, Muturi Sex Supplication Clip

This is the most explicit audio clip I have ever heard.  Well, it is the most explicit audio I have heard yet from Kenyan characters.

Nicole and Muturi are the two people here, and the conversation is in Swahili. Basically, in the audio, Nicole is supplicating for sex from Muturi.

Nicole: I wanted to be fuc***
Muturi: At this time?
Nicole: Yes
Muturi: Why didn't you tell me earlier?
Nicole: Muturi, please, just come now
Muturi: Where?
Nicole: My place?
Muturi: But I have slept?
Nicole: So can I come?
Muturi: No, you will make me fail to go to work tomorrow.

And then the conversation went on.

Let me start from the start. Earlier today, someone sent me a DM on Twitter telling me that there was an audio clip being circulated by e-mail featuring a ''couple'' arguing about sex.

So, in between some many things I was doing, I decided to find time to listen. So I listened and went back to my day job. Now, later this evening, another contact alerted me that Kiss FM wanted to play the clip, and they actually did, but with beeps to drown out about 9 words.

Apparently, the audio was posted to the audio distribution platform Sound Cloud earlier today, and circulated earlier by e-mail. It is not clear when it was recorded.

My take is, it looks like the call was made by Nicole, pleading with Muturi for sex. But cheekily, Muturi appears fed up with this girl and decided to record the conversation and later uploaded it online.

Nicole had about 18 Kenya shillings on her line when she was calling, assuming she was calling on either Safaricom or Zain line. From the conversation, she was calling him at just about 9pm local time.

Nicole: I will make you meat.
Muturi: No.
Nicole: Please come, if you don’t find meat, then go back.
Muturi: Aah.
Nicole: (I know) you are hard, in a nice way...
Muturi: Hahaha. I am blushing
…

Nicole: I am seriously wet
…

Nicole: You  don’t have to be smart, I just want you.

Nicole: Where do you come from? How can I be pleading with you for p***

And nine seconds later, the conversation ended, hanging. It is not clear, whether at the end of the conversation - 4:34 minutes - Muturi agreed to go to Nicole's place or whether she went herself. Or, if she called back again.

Now, I am still surprised that Kiss 100 drive played the clip!

Hear the clip here: http://soundclo­ud.com/soulsngr­/full-version-n­icole-and-mutur­i

Caroline Mutoko Defends Sex Toys, Adopts Child

With the baby, from her Facebook account

Caroline Mutoko is returning to work after taking a couple of weeks from Kiss 100 Big Breakfast to bond with her new love, in her new relationship.

The Queen of radio in Kenya announced in September that she had adopted a child, a few weeks after defending women who use sex toys because of the supposed failure of their husbands and boyfriends to satisfy them, sexually.

Without suggesting whether she will be getting married, Ms Mutoko wrote in September  that she had adopted a baby girl - Theodora Nduku - from a children's home and said she was happy.

The young woman who wrote the column last month in The Star newspaper was a humble, lovable person who liked being referred to as Mama, and who referred to the adopted kid as sweetheart - far from the brutally frank and almost demented girl who wrote about sex a few weeks earlier.

''Women need sex. Not a tiresome headboard pounding, but a toe-curling experience. It’s good for our immune system... and the ticket to a good night’s sleep,'' Ms Mutoko wrote in early July.

''I guess our worst crime as women in the bedroom is that we have never vocalized what we want and need. The average man is clueless as it is and the way sex works – a man is guaranteed –ahhh- how do I say this – a great finish. Women have nothing to gain from a sexual encounter and especially if the man in question is clueless about what brings her pleasure,'' she wrote then.

''Theodora Nduku, my daughter, my heart, my love... Words fail me. I love you deeply, totally. Thank you for teaching me simplicity, humility and bringing such joy and balance into my world,'' she wrote, four weeks later.

She did not elaborate what balance she was speaking of in the article. I wish her all the best in her new love.