Census results complicate Kenyan premier's career

Kenya has published results of its much-delayed national census conducted last year, with details of the nation's ethnic clusters, promising to make it difficult to win presidential elections - at least 2012 poll.

(Photo caption: L-R: Musyoka, Kibaki, Odinga and Mudavadi)

A new constitution enacted on 27 August will not help ease things for the nation's politicians, known for manipulating numbers of ethnic communities and using patronage to win election.


The results published today show that the population of Kenya has hit 38.6 million, but that is largely a number. The devil is in the detail.


The wealthiest ethnic group, the Kikuyu have remained ahead of the pack, in as much as serious illegal cheap brews have been decimating their population.

Odinga

The numbers: 1) Kikuyu 6,622,576 2) Luhya 5,338,666 3) Kalenjin 4,967,328 4) Luo 4,044,440 5) Kamba 3,893,157 6) Kenyan Somali (nullified awaiting recount) 2,385,572 7) Kisii 2,205,669 8) Mijikenda 1,960,574 9) Meru 1,658,108.


Lets put it in perspective for you: President Mwai Kibaki is a Kikuyu. He will not be running for president again. Prime Minister Raila Odinga is a Luo. He has been the front-runner to win 2012 presidency.

Musalia Mudavadi, a Luhya is Odinga's deputy, and less flamboyant of current top Kenyan leaders. Minister William Ruto is a Kalenjin. Uhuru Kenyatta, the finance minister is a Kikuyu, expected to be Kibaki's heir. Kalonzo Musyoka, the vice-president, is a Kamba, but his political career has been dimming.

Kibaki

The new constitution says presidential candidate must name a running candidate. Also it says ministers will not be MPs. For years, politicians have promised cabinet positions to win votes - no more - under new law.


Odinga had been hoping that he were to have a smooth sailing in 2012 polls, especially after he and Kibaki led the nation in securing a win for the recently adopted new charter.

But the census results now have complicated things for the man some people are convinced that he will never become president of the east African nation.


1. If he abandons Mudavadi for Uhuru Kenyatta, he may be guaranteed some Kikuyu numbers, but he losers more assured Luhya vote. Also, the other candidates will speak of things like dynasty etc. (Kenyatta is son of first president and Odinga is son of Kenya's first vice-president)

Ruto

2. If he goes with Mudavadi, then they may not get numbers beyond western Kenya where they both come from.
3. It is difficult to say if Ruto will agree to work with him, again.

 

Additionally, under new constitution: Chapter 12, Section 164 Sub-section 4 says:
(a) The candidate  for state president should receive more than half of all the votes cast in the election and
(b) At least 25 per cent of the votes cast in majority of regions shall be declared elected as state president. (If no candidate is elected, a fresh election shall be held within 30 days where the two top candidates with most votes in previous election take part)

NB/ Kikuyus do not vote for anyone except one of their own.

Shame of roads in African capitals

 

Which side do motorist drive in Africa? The answer is ''on the better section of the road''. That is how a joke goes in most of Africa where motorist should keep left.

Potholes in Africa are brutal: The cause accidents, spread diseases, cause violence, reverse development, cause hunger and generally kill. This is to say, Africa's roads are the most dangerous in the world!

A friend in Maputo mailed me the following pictures of potholes in some African capital, published by the press in recent days.

  

She said Harare and Kampala lead the way, with others like Kinshasa, N'Djamena, Nairobi, Dar es Salaam and Maputo fighting for positions in top ten league. She joked that in some capitals, the potholes actually attempt to kill.

 

This is Maputo. The best roads there are the worst ones in South Africa, seriously

(At the top is Kampala, Harare and Maputo)

So, which side of the road in your country do you drive on, or supposed to!

Another pay strike at Kenya Airways

A KQ Boeing plane

Another strike by about 3,000 staff of the Kenya Airways (KQ) is looming, exactly a year after another strike threatened to take back the airline into its 2008 loss-making year.

Sources have told this blog that a meeting in Nairobi scheduled for 3pm (12gmt) on 30 August will announce the beginning of a strike to press for better terms.
 

A statement posted on the Facebook page of the Aviation and Allied Workers Union said ''The strike is now on'', implying that after they agree to call off their strike in August 2009, the carrier has not sorted out the issue.

''The issues are: 1. They want a CBA 2. This is the third year and CBA of 2008 hasn't been concluded. 4. Dismissals. 5 Not honouring fleet agreement. 6. RTWF (not clear what this) 15 Months backdated pay 7 Members are fatigued and need to go on leave,'' the administrator of the page wrote on 26 August. Other sources said the strike will start on 31 August.

Last year, a strike by staff demanding a 130 percent pay rise caused massive flight delays and revenues to the airline.

On 16 Aug, the workers called off their two-day strike after reaching an agreement with management on a pay hike. Reports emerged later saying that the workers admitted that their 130 percent wage increase demand was unrealistic, and changed their demand to a figure of between 34 and 68 percent wage increases for unionised staff. No information has been seen about this.

Striking KQ staff, last year

The strike ended after workers agreed a 20 per cent pay rise. It is not clear what has happened since then.

If the planned strike goes ahead, tourists traveling to Kenya for the June-September annual Wildebeest migration will be grounded.

The profile of the company will also be dented, giving room for other carriers like Ethiopian Airlines and South African Airways to make inroads into KQ's major east and West African destinations.

French-Dutch carrier Air France-KLM owns 26 percent of Kenya Airways, while the Kenya government has a 23 percent stake.

Al-Bashir attended Jamia Mosque prayers

As international outcry continued over a visit by indicted Sudanese leader to Kenya on 27 August, this blog can now report that Omar al-Bashir attended Friday prayers at a mosque in central Nairobi.

President Al-Bashir attended Jamia Mosque Friday prayes after earlier attending an event in central Nairobi where the east African nation was adopting a new constitution.

Bashir at the Kenyan ceremony

Al-Bashir was accompanied to the mosque by the president of Comoros, Ahmed Abdallah Mohamed Sambi and Kenya's Tourism Minister Najiob Balala. After the prayers, a Jamia Mosque speaker announced that Al-Bashir had been among them at the prayers. (Earlier while arriving for the constitution gala at Uhuru Park, Al-Bashir was accompanied by Balala)

The Sudanese leader used the entrence to the right of the mosque, next to Al-Yusura hotel, to access the mosque. 

Around the mosque, there were unusually several police officers.

Nairobi Jamia Mosque

After the Uhuru Park celebration, dignitaries who were attending the event went to Nairobi state house for a luncheon. It is still unclear whether Al-Bashir attended the luncheon. He is a Muslim and has been fasting during the holy month of Ramadan.

(A statement issued by the president Press Service late on 27 August said the launcheon was attended by Presidents Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, Paul Kagame of Rwanda, Umar al-Bashir of Sudan, Ahmed Abdalla Sambi of the United Republic of Comoros, Zanzibar’s President Amani Abeid Karume, several retired haeds of State and former UN chief Koffi Annan)

Watch out for next week's edition of Friday Bulletin, a newsletter published by the Mosque, whether it will mention the details of the visit by Al-Bashir to the mosque.

End of ICC in Africa in sight

A futile furore led by the USA has been swirling around after Kenya refused to arrest indicted Sudanese president, in what appears to be the beginning of an end of ICC activities in Africa.

On 27 August, Omar Hasan al-Bashir defied an ICC arrest warrant by visiting Kenya - a country which was hoped would arrest him over allegations of war crimes and genocide in Darfur.

Bashir with Rwanda's Kagame at the ceremony

In fact, the failure by Nairobi to arrest Bashir means that no other African country will arrest Bashir - or indeed any other ICC suspects - except say South Africa and Uganda.

When Bashir visited Kenya, on the invitation of President Kibaki's ruling party, along with other regional leaders for the signing of Kenya's new constitution, he was treated with dignity.

The international community had largely expected that Kenya would arrest Bashir. And it becomes no surprise that the international community has been shell-shocked.

US President Barack Obama led the condemnation by the international community and local leaders over the Sudan leader’s presence during the historic ceremony. 

Obama

In a statement issued from the White House, President Obama said he was “disappointed that Kenya hosted Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir in defiance of International Criminal Court arrest warrants for war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide”.
He added: “In Kenya and beyond, justice is a critical ingredient for lasting peace.”

And America knows that that is exactly the reason Kenya cannot arrest Bashir - peace;  until maybe southern Sudan attains stability, independence and peace. That may be long, though.

Kenya is a guarantor of Sudan peace process. A key vote towards southern Sudan independence in on in January 2011. If Bashir is arrested, Sudan peace will unravel. Kenya does not want that!

Listen to what Kenyan Foreign Affairs Minister Moses Wetang'ula said over decision to invite Bashir to Nairobi.
"He was here… because we invited all neighbours and he is a neighbour. There are no apologies to make about anybody we invited to this function because I am sure we are enhancing peace and security and stability of this region more than anything else," he added. Wetang'ula said that Kenya did not act on the ICC warrant because the African Union has decided no member should arrest the Sudanese leader.

Wetang'ula

However, Prime Minister Raila Odinga's party, a partner in Kenya's coalition, denounced the visit by Bashir. “We will seek to know how President Bashir came here and why the government as a whole was neither consulted nor informed before such an unfortunate invitation was issued,” the Orange Democratic Movement party said.

Bashir's Kenya visit was his second trip to an ICC member state. The other member of the ICC that Bashir has visited is Chad. He has visited Ethiopia, Eritrea, Egypt and Libya, attended an Arab League summit in Qatar and performed a pilgrimage to Islam's holiest city, Mecca, in Saudi Arabia.

Al-Bashir was charged in March 2009 with five counts of crimes against humanity and two of war crimes for allegedly orchestrating atrocities in Darfur. In July this year, the ICC charged him with three counts of genocide.

Now that Kenya will not arrest Bashir, it is unlikely that it will arrest politicians and businessmen accused of being behind Kenya's 2008 violence. ICC is of course investigating the Kenya case.

Kenya's Zain taunts Safaricom

Kenya's second biggest mobile telephony firm has raised stakes in a bitter fight over market share with its main competitor.

Zain Kenya, recently acquired by India's Bharti Airtel, took its fight for market in the nation of 20 million mobile phone users, to the doorstep of Safaricom, the country's biggest mobile telephony firm. The combat continued even as Zain told Reuters that it is planning to invest more than 25 billion shillings (308.1m dollars) in the next 18 months in a bid to gain market leadership in Kenya.

Zain Kenya HQ (not so recent px)

On 25 August, Zain chastised Safaricom after the market leader, a day after the firm reduced its calling charges. Safaricom was responding to Zain's reduction of calling and text messaging charges to the lowest level in the country.

In two spreads in Kenya's two main daily newspapers, and against a green background - the official colour of Safaricom - Zain asked: ''Are you on a permanent tariff or a promotion, Do you pay a higher price and still get congestion?''. In the next page (each page cost an average of 180,000 Kenya shillings) Zain twisted Safaricom's slogan - the better option- and said, Switch to Zain, the best option!

Safaricom has been known for network congestion and short-term offers. Its offer to counter Zain's shocker is a one month offer.

End of Safaricom's 260m-dollar profits

This is a war that Safaricom is not likely to win!

Outgoing Safaricom CEO Michael Joseph

The Kenya's biggest mobile telephony operator has announced a cut on its calling tariff, in what seems unlikely to stem massive migration of clients to its major competitor, Zain.

Zain, recently bought by Bharti Airtel of India, last week announced the lowest calling tariff in Kenya. It lowered its call charges to three shillings per minute for voice calls and one shilling for text messages, to all networks in the country. 

The cut in calling rates followed the announcement by the Communication Commission of Kenya that it was cutting down to 2.20 shillings the amount that networks will be paying to each other for calls (interconnection fee).

Zain has a market share of about 10 per cent, while Safaricom has a giant 78 per cent share. Other operators, put together, control just under 10 per cent. Since Zain cut its charges, several subscribers started switching to Zain, either replacing their Safaricom lines or buying extra Zain lines, while awaiting to hear what Safaricom's offer would be.

Zain Logo

Now, today, on 24 August, Safaricom announced its offer to its clientele, with riders; conditions.  Its subscribers will be now call for two shillings within Safaricom, and three shillings to any other network, but with a condition that they buy credit airtime worth over 250 shillings. Beyond that, subscribers topping up airtime with less than 10 shillings will be calling for five shillings. Also, the offer announced is for up to mid-September, only. 

Such conditions will not stem a massive movement of Safaricom clients to Zain. This won't work, in a market where most mobile phone users usually top up 50 shillings.

This blog predicts that Safaricom market share will drop to less than 55 per cent in the next couple of weeks, while its share price will remain nothing above five shillings at the Nairobi bourse.

Before the current tariff review, Safaricom used to charge 12 shillings per minute for calls to other networks, while Orange charges 8 shillings. YU (Essar Telecom Kenya) has cut call charges to 3 shillings since the price wars started.

Generally speaking, mobile phone operators will experience reduced revenues and profits in the new wave of price wars, with customers benefiting the most. Zain may not expect huge revenues for now, but a sustained campaign to attract clients will work in the end. 

This is the end of Safaricom's 20bn-(260m dollars)-profits!

Thirty planes for Kenya constitution gala! Vanity

This blog submits that it is not right for Kenya to display its tanks, planes and boats on 27 August when President Mwai Kibaki will be promulgating the new constitution.

It is ok for the east African nation to showcase its parade of soldiers but utterly pointless to fly 30 planes across Nairobi sky in the name of celebration. 

Tanks

This is not to downplay the significance of the day, but rather to realize that Kenya has got other more pressing problems that can be eased using the money that would have been used to fuel the planes.

 

On Sunday night, Kenyan television showed a military rehearsal, of what will happen on Friday. The military put on display fighter jets, tanks, helicopters, cargo carriers, telecommunication equipment and other weaponry rarely seen, unless in war situation.

What else constitutes vanity!

What ails the Tanzanian president?

President Jakaya Kikwete of Tanzania has collapsed in public for the third time in a few years, even as the state continues to say so little about what really ails the 60-year-old economist.

President Kikwete at the World Economic Forum

When Kikwete collapsed in Mwanza to the north in 2009, his physician said he was OK, save for "a lot of blood in his body'', generally playing down his possible health problems.

And over the weekend, while launching his presidential re-election campaign in Dar es Salaam, he fell and was taken ill, 15 minutes into his speech.

He was held by members of his security detail before hitting the ground and carried off the podium to a mobile clinic behind the stage. He came back to the podium 15 minutes later, announcing that he will end the fast, and that the opposition is untested to run the country.

President Kikwete is a Muslim and has been fasting.

Kikwete in one of the meet-the-people tour

 

The last time he collapsed was on 4 October 2009, and earlier in 2005 while campaigning. Interesting enough, the Tanzanian media does not seem keen on asking if there is a bigger underlying problem to do with the health of the president.

At the rally where he collapsed in, the ruling CCM leader also criticized Internet campaigns by individuals he accused of spreading falsehoods against the party and its leaders. 

 

It is the internet that has been carrying reports claiming that Kikwete is sick, maybe with incurable disease. One wonders what is with the health of African leaders! Or, maybe Kikwete is healthy after all!

Meanwhile, this blog preidicts a massive win for Kikwete and his CCM in mainland in October elections.

Hollywood sexism ending

Sexism has dominated Hollywood for years, but things may be changing, now.

Salt, poster

It has been known that Hollywood has been a man's world, but there are indications that women are getting noticed. For years, Hollywood has not really, in my opinion, raised the profiles of women.
 
In top-grossing movies of our time, men have been running the show. But now, a recent Hollywood movie may be the beginning of a process of the transformation of the world's biggest film-making outfit.
 
Salt, a movie directed by a man - Philip Noyce - and starring one of Hollywood's top girls - Angelina Jolie - has show that women can take lead roles in major Hollywood Action films - not just love dramas with quite low budgets.
 
Salt is an action thriller film about a CIA officer accused of being a KGB agent, who then goes on the run. MS Jolie who played the role was paid, I am told, no less than 20m dollars.

Angelina Jolie in one of the scenes from Salt

But quite interesting is the fact that Ms Jolie's part was to be played by a top actor, Tom Cruise, who could not take up the job because of other engagements. The screenplay was subsequently changed to suit a woman.
 

The seeming success of Salt follows hot on the heels of another Hollywood successful work by a woman. Remember Hurt Locker, the war film? The movie was directed by Kathryn Bigelow the former wife of James Cameron - the man behind Avatar - the biggest movie of our time, since of course the Titanic. (Cameron is of course the man behind Titanic, too)

Bigelow at the Oscars

The success of Hurt Locker and subsequent recognition of Bigelow, (the first woman to win the Academy Award for Best Director) is an indication that Hollywood is changing, or it isn't? 

Maybe then, change is coming to Hollywood!

South Sudan's animal and fruit-shaped towns! huh

 

South Sudan, a dusty and decrepit outpost south of the largely developed Arab-north is seeking 10bn dollars to remake its towns to have shapes similar to those of wild animals, as the region prepares to attain what will possibly be its independence in January 2011!

Beyond that, there are no tarmac roads in southern Sudan, while other basic services such as electricity and sewage are a luxury. The region is struggling to recover after a civil war of more than two decades-long. 

Now, the authorities in the semi-autonomous region say they are talking with investors to raise the 10 billion dollars they need to reshape some of its towns to look like a giraffe, a rhino, and like a pineapple. All these in the name of ''bringing order to the city's [actually town's] chaotic layout''.

Southern Sudan's government budget for 2010 budget was 1.9 billion dollars.

Is it really a priority to undertake such fanciful projects on the eve of your independence?

Americans who don't know their leader!

Maybe then Obama is a Muslim, after all. Or even correctly, Americans do not know as much about the man they elected to end a war in Afghanistan, Iraq and continue the 'war on terrorism'.

Sample this. A new opinion poll published today in the USA has shown that many Americans are increasingly getting convinced that Obama is a Muslim, while another rapidly growing number are thoroughly confused about his religion.

According to the poll by the non-partisan Pew Research Centre and its affiliated Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, 18 percent, said they think Obama is Muslim.

The largest share of people, 43 percent, said they don't know his religion, an increase from the 34 percent who said that in early 2009, the poll said.

And by the way, the poll was conducted before the controversy over whether Muslims should be permitted to construct a mosque near Ground Zero. That may then mean the number of those who believe he is a Muslim may have risen.

Maybe his background is not helping matters. Barack Hussein Obama is the son of a Kenyan Muslim father and a Kansas mother. The young Obama grew up in predominantly Muslim Indonesia.

So you think he is Muslim?

The Internet

I am a big fan of the internet and i often ask myself whether there will be anything else, in our generation, that will come and upstage the internet.

I think the internet has bestowed on the human beings unparalleled capacity and opportunities that would have been impossible to think of, years ago. Today, the world is so interconnected in such a way that it is impossible to see how our generation would survive without the internet.

When i read, of course on the internet, about mobile operators in India receiving letters from the governemnt giving them a deadline to put in place monitoring capability for BlackBerry Messenger and secured enterprise e-mail services, i get amazed at the power of companies, hitherto not in a position to challenge states. Most of these commucation has been enhanced by the internet.

I submit that nothing as massive as the internet will come, in this century, unless God himself!!!