The fallout from the political war between William Ruto
and Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto will erode the unity of the deputy president’s
Kalenjin constituency in the Rift Valley and significantly weaken his
bargaining position in the run up to the 2017 elections.
While President Uhuru Kenyatta is keen to deliver a
united Kikuyu vote for Jubilee in the elections, the rivalry between the two
Rutos threatens to split Rift Valley and weaken claims that the two have the interests
of the community at heart.
In the rivalry, former President Daniel Moi stands to
bolster his position by picking up a constituency that sees the two Rutos as too
divisive and too proud to reach a compromise.
In the short term, the differences stand to dent the
credibility of William Ruto as a suave political operative, and present him as
a self-serving individual who has been mesmerized by trappings of power in
government.
It might be possible to deduce that perhaps his
political tactics are overrated, or explained that two difficult years in office
have softened this self-made politician who rose from nothing to become a key
player of our time.
Governor Ruto will come off badly too, as a wealthy
politician consumed by feeling of entitlement to offering political direction
to the Kalenjin people.
A few days ago, at fundraiser in Elgeiyo Marakwet,
Governor Rutto said that the people of Kenya know a Ruto will become the
president of Kenya one day, only that it has not been decided which Rut(t)o.
There has been rapprochement between Governor Ruto and
Baringo Senator Gideon Moi, whose political prospects are cleanly not for 2017 but
perhaps 2022.
In seeking closer ties with Mr Moi and KANU, Governor
Ruto is raising his stakes and hardening the prospects of possible deal with
the deputy president to end their row.
As a student of former President Moi and an orphan of
a directionless political system under Kibaki that threw off scholars of
contemporary politics, Rutto is better prepared for political contest with
anyone.
He is almost succeeding in positioning himself as the
Kipsigis leader who is being molested by a jealous elder brother, William.
The thinking in Rift Valley is that even before the
ICC case is out of the way, the storm in Rift Valley, which the deputy
president is obviously unwilling to douse off, is a dangerous miscalculation of
a man who hopes to one day become president.
Bomet,
Kericho politics
Back in Rift Valley, the fight stands to benefit no
other politician, as most in the South Rift are one-dimensional products of
political accidents.
In North Rift, they live in the shadows of the deputy
president, lacking access or spine to genuinely advise the deputy president on
the pettiness of the region’s politics.
But even with the exhausting shadow wars with the
deputy president, Governor Rutto will not be a pushover in Kipsigis politics
(Bomet and Kericho).
Barring prosecutable allegations of corruption, anyone
seeking to beat him in 2017 gubernatorial election in Bomet is deluding
themselves if they would not have an elaborate campaign plan, complete with
tactics, by the end of this year.
His main potential challengers for the governor’s
post, which will be an extension of tuft wars with Ruto, include Sotik MP Joyce
Laboso, former MP Julius Kones, former Communications Commission of Kenya boss
Sammy Kirui and accountant Ernest Cheruiyot.
Ms Laboso is supposed to be beneficiary of a Rutto
tragedy, but she is starting off from an extremely weak position, beset by petty
fights with local journalists, regular sneering at perceived weak opponents and
lack of strategy.
Male chauvinists will mock he devotion to the
development of the community, following her marriage to Western
Kenya , and brand her Ruto’s project.
It is my assessment that if all other factors remain
the same, beyond the year, Governor Ruto will be unbeatable in 2017 election
because of a wide grassroots support network that has been well cushioned from
any bad press relating to allegations of misuse of county funds.
Anything else will be comparable to a legend of a
hyena trailing a man with the hope that the hand would fall off, offering a
feast.
That hand is not even there in Kericho, where Governor
Paul Chepkwony’s political prospects are dependent on local business class and
the final result of Ruto-Rutto duel.
Kericho Senator Charles Keter, an ally of the deputy
president, would be the obvious beneficiary in the event of a defeat of Rutto,
but he is hardliner who is unsure how to benefit.
